Climate Change

Is Global Warming Real?

Is climate change or global warming really happening? The general public preception is that it is real and that the climate is not the same as it was even a generation ago. It depends where you are, but there seems in general to be less snow, more (or less) rain, and more extremes of weather. A poll in 2006 reported that 85% of Americans believed that global warming "probably is occurring". A 30-nation poll in 2006 found that 90% agree that "climate change or global warming, due to the greenhouse effect" is a serious problem.

Scientifically, there is widespread agreement that global warming is real. Figure 1 shows that there has been approximately 0.74 degree C rise in mean global temperature since 1900 (UK Met Office). The 10 warmest years since proper records began have all occurred since 1995. Glaciers have been retreating and sea levels have been rising since about 1850. Malaria has spread to higher altitudes and at least 279 species of plants and animals are moving closer to the poles.

To put all this in perspective, the warming trend since 1850 should be seen in terms of long-term trends. For example, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic have been increasing since 1700 (since the 'Little Ice Age') but currently they are only at the mean value for the last 3,000 years (J. Bluemle, 1999)!

Global Warming Science

There is much debate about what is contributing to the temperature increase in Figure 1. Let's consider the facts as seen by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is a scientific intergovernmental body comprised of two organizations of the UN.

Figure 2 shows that the natural variations of solar and volcanic activity cannot on their own account for the increase, even though solar activitiy may currently be at its highest level for 8,000 years. And man-made sulfate emmissions actually reduce global temperature. The significant point is that climate models are only able to simulate the temperature record over the past century when greenhouse gases (GHGs) are included in the model (UK Met Office). In other words, GHGs seem crucial to the warming process.

This concept is backed by ice-core studies which show that during at least the past 600,000 years (assuming conventional dating methods) CO2 levels appear to correlate with temperature variation i.e. CO2 has been high during warm periods and low during cool periods (see Past Climate Change). Figure 3 illustrates this point: CO2 has had a cyclic variation (period approximately 100,000 years) and the graph peaks correspond to interglacial periods. This natural climatic variation may be due in part to the 100,000 year period of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit (Milutin Milankovitch).

But the significant point here is that each peak in the cycle levelled at approximately 278 ppm until the industrial revolution around 1800. Since then, the CO2 level has increased dramatically, reaching 382 ppm in 2005! This recent 37% increase in atmospheric CO2 appears to be a sudden departure from the natural variation, with the implication that human activity is responsible for global warming. The IPCC therefore calls this 'anthropogenic warming'. Moreover, assuming different levels of human economic development, population growth, and fossil-fuel use, IPCC predictions for atmopheric CO2 levels lie between 500ppm and 900ppm by 2100!

Conventional predictions of future temperature rise depend upon these estimates of future GHG emmissions and typically give a rise of 2-5 degree C relative to 1990 levels by 2100 (Fig.4). A 5 degree rise is equivalent to the change in mean temperature from the last ice age to today!

The Global Warming Controversy

The IPCC position on global warming is that concentrations of certain greenhouse gases (GHG's) have dramatically increased due to the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, and that this probably accounts for most of the warming over the past 50 years. It claims that the majority of climate scientists agree with this position and that it has been endorsed by more than 50 scientific societies and academies of science. Common challenges to this theory are disputed by offical bodies like the The Royal Society.

The Medieval Data

Medieval temperature and CO2 levels may be more difficult to dismiss. It is well known that global tropospheric temperatures and North Atlantic surface temperatures c1000 AD were significantly higher than present day levels. Yet this is not represented in the IPCC 'hockey stick' temperature graph, which has been challenged for its mathematical flaws. Moreover, the CO2 levels c1000 AD were significantly lower than present-day levels despite higher temperatures, and they did not significantly decrease during the 'Little Ice Age'. In addition, from 1957-2000 the South Pole temperature decreased by 1.5 deg whilst the corresponding CO2 rose from 314 to 360 ppm. In short, some claim that there is no CO2-temperature correlation. This idea has some support from measurements that suggest a CO2 rise sometimes lags warming. In such cases, a CO2 rise could provide positive feedback once some other cause has initiated warming.

So is today's warming due to a natural recovery from the Little Ice Age and industrialization is adding a serious positive feedback effect?

Finally, whilst some dispute the IPCC model due to mathematical flaws or flaws in the CO2 physics, some dispute the idea on political and economic grounds. They claim that CO2 emissions are being used to increase taxation and government control. Others feel that restricting the use of fossil fuels would have more damaging effects on the world economy than the increases in global temperature. For a full debate see the Global Warming Controversy.

The Consequences

Whatever the scientific reason for warming, the physical consequences of warming are well rehearsed in the literature e.g. increased drought, flooding, and severe storms. Gulf Stream slow-down could plunge the USA and NW Europe into cold and drought.

The social consequences of a relatively large rise in global temperature are well summarised in a few key reports:

The Implications for YOU!

Climate change is occurring very rapidly and is affecting everyone. Sadly, few realise that these events are prophesied in the Bible and are part of the 'end time' scenario. For example:

'... the world fades and withers ...' (Isa 24.4)

'... the inhabitants of the earth are burned, and few men are left' (Isa 24.6)

'There will be ... dismay among nations, in perplexity at the roaring of the sea and the waves' (Lk 21.25)

'... all the green grass was burned up' (Rev 8.7)

'... huge hailstones, about one hundred and fifty pounds each, came down from heaven upon men ...' (Rev 16.21)

These biblical quotations are consistent with climate change predictions. So although man may be affecting the climate, it is still God's weather and God is still in ultimate control. Severe world-wide drought, storms and high temperatures are prophesied as part of God's judgement upon a humanistic, godless world. From this viewpoint, man cannot affect his environment and prevent global warming.

The good news is that you do not have to go through the extremes of these end time judgements (the 'wrath' of God). The Bible promises all those who put their trust in Jesus Christ will be exempt from such terrible times. See Steps You Must Take

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